Weekend Weather Blog

Dave Nussbaum
dnussbaum@wbrz.com

Short Term:  It sure was a hot Saturday afternoon with high temperatures climbing into the mid 90s, but it felt more like 105-110 with the Heat Index.  There were a few showers this afternoon, and they will linger into the evening before dissipating after sunset.  There wasn't much rain today because of dry air that came in aloft.  Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s. 

On Sunday, we will start off with plenty of sunshine, and it will get hot fast too.  Temperatures will be in the lower 90s at noon.  High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s before the rain gets going.  The Heat Index will be around 105-110 again.  During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with the heating of the day, plus from the disturbance in the Gulf.  That disturbance will send moisture from the Gulf this way, and that too will lead to storms developing. 

Tropical System Brewing?:  We will be watching that disturbance pretty closely since there is a chance for it to develop into a tropical system on Sunday.  Conditions are favorable for development with little shear, and high pressure aloft.  Plus the water temperatures in the northern Gulf are in the mid 80s. 

This system comes from the trough of low pressure that moved through the Southeast yesterday.  It is possible for these troughs to enter the Gulf of Mexico and develop into something tropical.  A few of the forecast models have this system forming on Sunday and drifting to the west, or along the northern Gulf Coast.  If it does, it could make a landfall anywhere from Lake Charles, LA to south Texas.  The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system, if needed, on Sunday.

A similar situation occurred in 1970 when Hurricane Celia formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and became a Category 3 hurricane.  It made landfall over south Texas.  Lets hope that doesn't happen with this. 

Needless to say, I will watch this very closely!  Stay tuned to News 2 and Cable Channel 18 for updates if needed.

Next Week Forecast:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will greet us on Monday, and some into Tuesday.  The amount will depend on where that possible tropical system goes.  Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. 

On Wednesday through Friday, high pressure will sit over us, and that will keep us mostly dry.  Only stray afternoon storms will pop up, and it will be hot!  High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s each day with lows in the mid 70s. 

Tropical Outlook:  Other than that possible system in the northern Gulf of Mexico, I am watching a few tropical waves out in the open Atlantic. 

The first one is associated with an area of low pressure located about 1150 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands.  This system has become better organized, and has the potential for development into a tropical depression during the next few days.  After that, it will encounter some strong shear and weaken as it moves to the west at 15-20 mph.

The second wave is located about 375 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.  There is not a sign of a surface circulation, but the environment if favorable for development during the next couple of days.  It is moving to the west at 15-20 mph. 

Elsewhere. . .the tropics are calm, and tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.