Short Term:  We are dealing with another cool and pleasant start to the day.  The skies are clear with temperatures in the lower 50s across much of south Louisiana.  That sweater or jacket may be needed this morning, but you will not need it later...

The fantastic weather continues today for the 6th straight day!  I do not think many people are complaining since it is very comfortable.  A weak cold front will skirt by to the north of Louisiana today, and this will be a dry front.  That means we will have more sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s. 

An area of high pressure will build in behind the cold front tonight, and this will send a reinforcing shot of colder air toward Baton Rouge.  The skies will be clear, but the low temperatures will fall down to the mid and upper 40s.  BRRRR!!

Friday & The Weekend:  We will remain dry over the next few days, but the weather will start to change.  The area of high pressure will remain over us on Friday, and that will continue to provide us with the sunny skies.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.

That area of high pressure will move toward the North Carolina coast, and that will allow southerly winds to come back to the Northern Gulf Coast states on Saturday.  These winds will pump in moisture from the Gulf, and that is going to make it more humid.  You will see this happening as partly cloudy skies return.  It will be warm with highs in the upper 70s, and lows in the upper 50s Saturday night.

A cold front will approach and slowly move through Louisiana on Monday & Tuesday.  Some showers will start to pop-up on Sunday night since we will have plenty of moisture in place.  It will remain warm and humid with lows around 60. 

Tropical Update:  Ida formed yesterday afternoon, and it is a hurricane this morning.  Ida is located about 60 miles NNE of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  It is moving to the NW near 7 mph with sustained winds of 75 mph.  The pressure is 987 mb.  Ida will make landfall in Nicaragua today.  Once inland, Ida will weaken, and continue to track NW over Eastern Nicaragua and Honduras over the next few days.

The question still remains as to how strong Ida will be once it emerges into the NW Caribbean over the weekend.  It is very possible that the storm will totally dissipate over the rough terrain over Nicaragua and Honduras.  However, it could still have enough energy to survive the track over land, and then could restrengthen once it hits the NW Caribbean.  The official forecast track takes Ida across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday.  Some of the forecast models do track Ida into the Central Gulf by the middle of next week. 

Historically, a tropical system has not made a landfall in Louisiana dating back to 1851 in the month of November.  If a storm has entered into the Gulf and starts heading toward Louisiana, a cold front usually comes through around the same time.  This deflects the system to the north and east, or toward Florida. 

It looks like if Ida survives, and makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, another cold front will likely deflect it away from us according to the latest forecast models.  You can see their tracks here on the WBRZ Hurricane Center page.  Nonetheless, I will watch Ida closely to see what happens over the next week. 

Elsewhere. . .the rest of the tropics are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday.

Short Term:  It is another cool and pleasant start to the day.  The skies are mostly clear, but you may want to grab your jacket again as the temperatures are in the upper 40s to lower 50s this morning. 

We will have another comfortable afternoon across south Louisiana.  The skies will have some high clouds streaming in from a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche making it mostly sunny.  It will be a warm day with highs in the upper 70s.

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, and it will remain cool with low temperatures dropping to the lower 50s.

Rest of the Week:  A weak and dry cold front will skirt by just to the north of Louisiana on Thursday, and this will drop the temperatures a few degrees as high pressure builds in over us.  High temperatures will be in the mid 70s with beautiful sunny skies.  It will be much cooler on Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 40s under clear skies.

A few clouds can be expected on Friday making it mostly sunny as the area of high pressure starts to move to the east.  It will remain warm with highs in the mid 70s. 

Over the weekend, the area of high pressure will move to the East Coast, and this will bring back the southerly winds over Louisiana.  This will also bring back the humidity, but it will still be dry.  You will be able to see this as we will have more clouds popping up, or making it partly cloudy.  It will remain warm with highs in the mid 70s, and lows will be much warmer as they only fall to the upper 50s. 

Tropical Update:  Clouds and showers associated with an area of low pressure in the extreme Southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of organization, and have increased in coverage today.  A tropical depression could form at any time!  The low is expected to remain stationary over the next few days.  Upper-level winds are favorable for development - meaning there is little wind shear.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.  There is a High chance, greater than 50%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days.  To check out the latest satellite images of this system and forecast model tracks, check out WBRZ's Hurricane Center webpage here.

Elsewhere. . .the rest of the tropics are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation in not expected through Thursday.

Short Term:  It is a clear and chilly morning across the Capital City area.  You will want to grab that light jacket as you head out the door with the temperatures in the upper 40s.

We will have more delightful weather again this afternoon.  The area of high pressure remains right over us, and that is giving us the sunny skies.  It also is helping to keep the temperatures down with our highs only climbing into the mid 70s.  That is actually what we should have for early November. 

The skies will remain clear tonight and it will still be clear.  However, low temperatures will be in the lower 50s around Baton Rouge, but the outer areas will still get into the upper 40s.

Week Ahead:  More pleasant weather will greet us on Wednesday with sunny skies and highs in the mid 70s.  Clear and cool weather is expected Wednesday night with lows in the lower 50s.

On Thursday, a weak and dry cold front will move just to the north of Baton Rouge.  This front will dissipate as it moves into the Southeast U.S., and will not have any rain associated with it.  That means we will still have a sunny day, but the temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the lower 70s.  Lows will be near 50.

A second area of high pressure will build in behind this front on Friday, and you guessed it, we will have another day full of sunshine!  It will be a little warmer with highs in the mid 70s.

Over the weekend, the area of high pressure will move toward the East Coast.  This will bring back the southerly winds, and also the humidity.  Both Saturday and Sunday will have partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s with partly cloudy skies at night. 

Tropical Update:  There are some disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure in the Southwest Caribbean Sea.  Some slow development is possible over the next few days as the system remains stationary.  Upper-level winds are favorable for development.  There is now a medium chance, 30% to 50%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere. . .all other areas of the tropics are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday.

. . .Gorgeous Weather This Week. . .

Daylight Saving Time:  I hope that you changed your clocks back one hour this weekend, if not, you better this morning!

Climate Information: Baton Rouge Ryan Field...12.82 inches of rain was recorded making it the 2nd wettest October. The wettest October on record here saw 14.48 inches of rain in 1984. 
 
McComb Pike County Airport...6.85 inches of rain was recorded making it the 7th wettest October. The wettest October on record in McComb saw 12.74 inches of rain in 1964.

Short Term:  After a beautiful weekend, the pleasant weather continues this morning.  It is a little chilly with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 40s.  You may want to grab that light jacket as you head out the door.

It will be another gorgeous afternoon across South Louisiana.  An area of high pressure has parked itself over the Deep South, and this is providing us the dry, sunny and cool weather.  High temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

Clear, chilly but comfortable weather can be expected tonight.  Low temperatures will fall down to the upper 40s.

Week Ahead:  The area of high pressure will move to the east on Tuesday, but we will not see a huge warm up of the temperatures.  It will remain warm and sunny with highs in the mid 70s.  It will be clear and cool on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 50s.

A weak cold front will move just to the north of Louisiana on Wednesday.  This front will not make its way through the state, so we will not see any rain.  It will still be sunny and warm with highs in the mid 70s, and lows in the lower 50s.

Another area of high pressure will build in on Thursday, and this will continue to make it sunny and warm. Highs will be in the lower 70s, and lows in the lower 50s.

The second are of high pressure will move toward the East Coast on Friday.  This will bring back southeast winds, and they will help to make it more humid.  We will have partly cloudy skies on Friday through Sunday.  Daily high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the mid 50s. 

Tropical Update:  I am watching an area of showers and thunderstorms that is located about 350 miles ENE of Bermuda.  It is a non-tropical area of low pressure, but the storms have diminished overnight.  It appears that it is acquiring some subtropical characteristics.  This means that it is part tropical (warm core) and part non-tropical (cold core).  However, it is still associated with a surface cold front, hence the partial cold core.  It could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or so as it moves to the northwest then north around 10 mph.  Since the system has weakened, there is just a medium chance, or 30% to 50%, of this system becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 

Elsewhere. . .the rest of the tropics are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

. . .Heavy Rain Likely Today. . .

Climate: We tied a 113 year old record high on Thursday!  The mercury climbed to 88 degrees, that means the old record was set back in 1896! 

Short Term:  It is a very warm, muggy and breezy start to this Friday.  The skies are mostly cloudy and there is a line of rain off to the west of Baton Rouge.  We will stay dry this morning with morning temperatures in the upper 70s.

The showers and thunderstorms will move into Baton Rouge by lunchtime today.  The rain will be slow moving, and heavy rain is expected.  A few storms could be strong with gusty winds to around 40 mph, but severe weather will likely stay north of Baton Rouge where the best dynamics are in place.  High temperatures will be reached around lunchtime as they climb into the lower 80s, and then they will fall through the afternoon down into the 60s. 

Periods of rain can be expected tonight as the cold front moves through.  The rain will likely be heavy at times.  Rainfall totals for the day could be around 1 to 3 inches.  It will be much cooler with lows in the lower 50s. 

Halloween Weekend:  The cold front will be located to the east of Louisiana by lunchtime, and the rain will gradually come to an end.  The clouds will decrease throughout the afternoon, and it will be a cooler day.  High temperatures will be in the upper 60s.

Trick-or-Treaters will have spook-tacular weather!  The skies will be mostly clear between 6 to 8 PM, and it will be cool with temperatures in the lower 60s.  This will also be boo-tiful weather for the LSU game at 7 PM verses Tulane. 

Overnight on Saturday we will have clear skies and chilly temperatures down to the upper 40s.

High pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. on Sunday.  This will make for some fantastic weather with sunny skies and mild temperatures in the lower 70s.  It will be clear and chilly on Sunday night with lows in the upper 40s.

Football Forecast:  The weather will gradually improve during the SLU game verses Central Arkansas.  At kickoff you can expect mostly cloudy skies with a few showers and temperatures in the mid 60s.  By the end of the game, it will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 60s.  Those Southern Fans headed to Pine Bluff, AR the weather will be great for the 2: 30 PM kickoff against Arkansas - Pine Bluff.  It will be mostly sunny with temperatures in the lower 60s at kickoff. 

Next Week Outlook:  The area of high pressure will park itself over the Southeast U.S., and this is going to make for a beautiful week!  Each day, Monday through Friday, will have sunny skies with low humidity.  It will be mild with daily highs in the lower to mid 70s, and cool at night with lows in the lower 50s.

Tropical Update:  All areas of the tropics are still quiet, and they will remain that way for awhile.  Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the weekend.

Short Term:  It is a very warm and muggy morning across south Louisiana with some fog.  A warm front has moved north of us from the Gulf of Mexico.  Scattered showers have formed ahead of it, and they continue to move to the north with the front.  We will have mostly cloudy skies with a few showers throughout the morning.  Temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

The warm front will continue to move to the north over Mississippi, while a cold front will slowly move to the east across Texas.  We will be much warmer and more humid today, and with daytime heating, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms pop-up this afternoon.  Some of the storms could be strong with wind gusts to 40 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.  Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy when it is not raining with highs in the lower 80s.

Isolated showers can be expected tonight with mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be warm as they only fall into the lower 70s.  Some patchy fog will also be possible. 

Friday & Halloween Weekend:  The cold front will move closer to Baton Rouge on Friday.  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move through town.  Some could be strong to even severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of South Louisiana in a Slight Risk for severe weather.  The main threats would be damaging winds and a slight chance of a tornado.  Click here for more information.  Heavy rain can also be expected.  It will remain warm and humid, and this will fuel the storms.  High temperatures will be in the lower 80s. 

The showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday night as the front moves into Baton Rouge.  Again, some of the storms could be strong to severe.  Lows will be much cooler as they fall down to the lower 50s. 

The cold front will finally move through South Louisiana on Halloween (Saturday) by lunchtime.  This means the tailgaters will have to deal with some rain.  Once it moves through, the rain will end and we will gradually clear the skies out.  It will be much cooler with highs around 70. 

Clear skies will greet us on Saturday night.  It will be cool for the Trick-or-Treaters between 6 to 8 PM, and for the LSU vs. Tulane game at 7 PM.  Temperatures will be in the lower 60s.  Overnight, low temperatures will get chilly as they fall down to the upper 40s.

High pressure will build in over us on Sunday, and that will make for a gorgeous sunny day.  It will be mild with highs in the lower 70s.

Tropical Update:  All areas from the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday.

. . .Dense Fog Advisory Until 9 AM. . .

Short Term:  It is a very foggy start to this Wednesday morning!  Visibilities are down to less than 1/2 mile in many places along and north of I-10.  Please use caution as your travel around town this morning.  Otherwise, it is cloudy and cool with temperatures in the lower 50s.  The fog will dissipate around 9 AM, and then we will be left with partly cloudy skies.

It will be a very pleasant and warmer afternoon.  An area of high pressure will be sitting to the northeast of Louisiana, and this will provide us with partly cloudy skies.  It will also bring in southeast winds which will warm us up into the upper 70s. 

Cloud cover will increase tonight as plenty of moisture returns from the Gulf of Mexico.  Isolated showers will also start to pop up late tonight, or after midnight.  Low temperatures will actually occur early, or around midnight, before they rise through the early morning hours into the upper 60s.

Rest of the Week:  A cold front will be moving across Texas on Thursday, and there will be plenty of rain developing ahead of it.  We are expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to move over Baton Rouge throughout the day as a warm front moves from the Gulf of Mexico northward over Louisana.  Rains could become heavy at times.  Otherwise, It will be mostly cloudy, much warmer and more humid with highs in the lower 80s.

The cold front will move over western Louisiana on Friday, and this will spread more rain and storms over us.  Some of the storms could become strong to even severe.  However, the bulk of the severe weather will be to the northwest of us.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Slight Risk for severe weather.  The threat would mainly be damaging winds, but I can not rule out a possible tornado, and hail due to the dynamics that will be in place.  Check out the SPC's thoughts here.  It will be a warm and muggy day with highs in the lower 80s. 

The showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday night as the cold front moves closer to Baton Rouge.  Some of these could also be strong.  Lows will be in the lower 60s. 

The cold front will finally move through on Halloween (Saturday).  It looks like the first half of the day will have scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The forecast models are showing the rain getting out of here by 6 PM, or just in time for the trick-or-treaters.  The weather will also improve for the college football games in Baton Rouge and Hammond.  However, tailgaters may have to dodge the rain.  High temperatures will be MUCH cooler as they only rise to the upper 60s.  Lows will be in the lower 50s with clear skies on Saturday night.

High pressure builds in on Sunday, and that will make it sunny.  Temperatures will not drop much behind the front.  Rather, it will be mild with highs in the mid 70s.  The sunny and pleasant weather continues into next week as well with daily highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Tropical Update:  All areas of the tropics are calm and quiet.  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Thursday.

Short Term:  You better grab your umbrella as you head out the door today!  Scattered to numerous showers are greeting us this morning.  They are part of an area of low pressure that is moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico, and a cold front that is tied into it.  The rains will continue throughout the morning hours, and they could become heavy at times.  It will be a cool morning with temperatures in the lower 60s, and they will slowly rise into the mid 60s by lunchtime. 

The showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into the early afternoon before ending.  As the area of low pressure moves inland and to the east, we will see a decrease in the amount of rain.  Then we will have mostly cloudy skies.  It will be a mild day with highs around 70.

The skies will gradually clear tonight, and it will be much colder as northwest winds come in behind the cold front.  Low temperatures will fall down to the lower 50s with areas in southern Mississippi in the upper 40s.

Week Ahead:  An area of high pressure will build in on Wednesday, and that is going to make for a very pleasant day.  We will have mostly sunny skies, and it will actually be warmer with highs in the upper 70s.

Things start to go down hill on Thursday.  Another cold front will move toward us from the northwest.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front over us as a warm front moves up from the Gulf.  Some of the storms could become strong with gusty winds, heavy rain and plenty of lightning.  We will see some sunshine, but that will just help to make the atmosphere more unstable, or favorable for storms.  It will be a warmer and more humid day with highs in the lower 80s.

The showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday as the cold front gets closer to Baton Rouge.  Some of the storms could become strong to severe, and this is something I will have to keep a close eye on once we get to Friday.  The ingredients are coming together to support severe weather.  It will be a warm day with highs around 80.  The cold front will move through by Friday night/Saturday morning, and that will put an end to the rain.  Lows will be in the upper 50s.

High pressure will build in on Saturday, and that will clear out the bad weather.  We will have mostly sunny skies, but it will not cool down much.  Highs will be in the upper 70s since the cold air is not going to make it to our area. 

The weather will be perfect for Halloween trick-or-treaters!  During the 6 PM to 8 PM hours, the weather will be mostly clear and mild with temperatures around 70.  It will also be nice for the LSU game too!  Overnight, we will have clear skies with lows in the upper 50s.

More pleasant weather is expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s under sunny skies. 

Climatology:  As of this morning, the official rainfall total for month of October at Baton Rouge Metro Airport is 10.35 inches.  This is currently the 2nd wettest October ever.  The record is 14.48 inches set back in 1984.  With the rains today, and again on Thursday and Friday it will be possible that we could break that record!! 

Tropical Update:  All areas are calm and quiet.  Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday.

Short Term:  It is a cool and cloudy start to this Monday morning.  Some isolated showers are possible for the morning commute, but the chance of rain is pretty low.  You will want to grab a light jacket as you head out the door and your umbrella too.

We will have a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon as moisture returns to the area.  A cold front is located off to the west of Louisiana, and it is spreading heavy rain over Texas.  This front is moving toward us, but will not get here until tomorrow.  However, plenty of rain has developed ahead of it, and that is what will give us some showers today.  The chance of rain during the day will be low, but it will be significantly higher tonight.  It will be a mild day with highs in the mid 70s.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will greet us tonight.  Rain could become heavy at times with rainfall totals around 1 inch.  It will be a mild night with lows in the upper 50s.

Week Ahead:  The cold front will move through on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain can be expected with rainfall totals around 1 to 2 inches.  Severe weather is not expected, but some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds.  High temperatures will be in the lower 70s.  Tuesday night will have partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 50s.

Wednesday will be a dry day as an area of high pressure sits over us.  This will make it partly cloudy, but it will not be cooler.  Highs will be in the upper 70s. 

Another cold front will march toward us on Thursday.  It will be warm and humid as southerly winds return.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving in ahead of the front with partly cloudy skies.  It will be warm and humid with highs around 80.  Lows will be warm as they only drop to the upper 60s.

The scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday as the cold front moves through.  Some of the storms could be strong to severe, so I'll have to keep an eye on how this system develops.  Highs will be in the upper 70s.  The rain will continue on Friday night with lows in the upper 50s.

The rain will come to an end on Saturday morning as the front moves through, and then we will see a gradual decrease in the clouds making it partly cloudy.  It will still be a warm day as the cold air mass does not look like it will make it to Louisiana.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70s.  Halloween night looks to be very nice with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s with mostly clear skies.  Sunday will be mostly sunny and mild with highs in the mid 70s.

Tropical Update:  All areas of the Atlantic tropical basin are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.