Inside Report for Oct. 31, 2008

• By LANNY KELLER
• Advocate Opinion page staff
• Published: Oct 31, 2008 - Page: 9B - UPDATED: 12:05 a.m.

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In a state where Republican John McCain has long been expected to win on Tuesday, some down-ballot Republicans are trying to capture the voters who might otherwise cast ballots for incumbent Democrats.

That’s the strategy embraced by at least two Republican challengers, John Kennedy in the U.S. Senate race and Bill Cassidy in the race for 6th District in the U.S. House.

Both are running against Democratic incumbents.

Campaigning in northern Louisiana, state Treasurer Kennedy said he would be a “firewall” in the Senate against liberal policies should Democrat Barack Obama be elected president.

On WRKF on Wednesday, Cassidy — a state senator from Baton Rouge — said he would also be a check on a “supermajority” of Democrats that may be carried into office in a big Obama win. If two-thirds of the House members are Democrats, “Pelosi can pass anything she wants to,” Cassidy said, referring to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

In both cases, the challengers are trying to reach McCain voters with a partisan message. Both reflect the prospect that Democrats will make gains in both the Senate and the House in Tuesday’s voting around the country. Democrats already control both chambers in Congress but the party is poised to increase its majorities in both houses.

This strategy by the Louisiana Republicans makes sense, but has its limits.

If one is a Republican greatly concerned about Pelosi’s power, or strongly anti-Obama, probably one is already voting for Kennedy over U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, the incumbent.

The same is probably true in Cassidy’s race, where he faces U.S. Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-New Roads, and state Rep. Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge, who is running as a no-party candidate.

So if the “firewall” message appeals to one’s base, it suggests Kennedy and Cassidy are worried that core Republican voters aren’t entirely on the reservation. In Kennedy’s case, the high-profile endorsements of Landrieu by prominent Republicans, most recently venerable former Gov. David C. Treen, are probably eroding some of the party base that Kennedy might need.

Cassidy, though, is in a three-way race in the Baton Rouge district held by Republican Richard Baker for more than 20 years. With two Democrats — although technically Jackson is no-party now — dividing the Democratic vote, Cassidy can win if he consolidates his party’s base. The top vote-getter in the 6th District on Tuesday wins, whether or not he gets a clear majority of votes cast.

One problem with both Republican candidates’ appeals: They’re running against basically quite conservative Democrats. Landrieu has endlessly touted her deviations from her party’s liberal leaders and her support from Republican leaders. Cazayoux is a “Blue Dog,” part of a coalition of conservative and mostly Southern Democrats who are well to the right of Pelosi on many issues.

Another problem is the role of party in the Senate, particularly, is not as clear-cut as Kennedy would have us believe.