School levels to stay, demographer predicts

• By MARSHA SILLS
• Advocate Acadiana bureau
• Published: Nov 5, 2009 - Page: 1BA

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LAFAYETTE — Lafayette Parish school enrollment likely will remain steady for the next 10 years, demographer, Jerome McKibben told board members Wednesday.

This year’s total enrollment is 29,089. In 10 years, it’s projected to be 29,124.

“You see a stabilized enrollment, but the distribution will change,” McKibben said after his presentation to the board. “You’ll see dramatic changes.”

McKibben said he’s still working on a more detailed report about distribution changes and enrollment projects by zone and grade level.

McKibben is part of the team developing a master plan for the district’s facilities.

Earlier this year, the district hired CSRS Inc., of Baton Rouge, to develop the plan, which is due in May.

McKibben’s projections will guide the master planning system. The projected steady enrollment will make that process a bit easier, said Chris Pellegrin, of CSRS.

“We can plan with the students we have today and the problems that you have today,” Pellegrin said.

McKibben developed his forecast with several assumptions related to the economy, housing market and unemployment rates, according to McKibben.

Some of those assumptions include that the unemployment rate remain below 8.5 percent for the next 10 years; that at least 8,100 housing units are constructed; and that interest rates remain steady.

While the area has been somewhat insulated from the dire economic straits experienced in other parts of the country, no boom is on the horizon that would create dramatic population changes locally, according to McKibben.

“New home construction is half of what it was three years ago,” McKibben said.

While the number of empty-nesters is expected to increase over the next 10 years, a drop in enrollment was offset by new students who will likely enter the public system from private schools, McKibben said.