Chamber: ’10 outlook better

• By GARY PERILLOUX
• Advocate business writer
• Published: Nov 4, 2009 - Page: 6B

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The nine-parish Baton Rouge region, with 775,000 people and 375,000 jobs, should see both population and job numbers grow next year, despite lingering effects from a recession and doubts about state government revenue in Louisiana’s capital city, the Baton Rouge Area Chamber reported Tuesday.

In its economic outlook for 2010, BRAC forecasts a regional job gain of 1 percent to 2 percent, which would bring 3,000 to 6,500 net new jobs, said Adam Knapp, BRAC’s chief executive officer.

BRAC expects the region to conclude 2009 with a net loss of 1,400 jobs.

That’s in line with what Baton Rouge consulting economist Loren Scott forecast last month. After flat employment in 2009, Scott and co-authors of the “Louisiana Economic Outlook: 2010-2011” projected the region gaining 4,000 jobs in 2010 and another 5,500 net new positions in 2011.

Using its own analysis, BRAC presented its research and projections about the Baton Rouge area economy in a Tuesday forum at the Shaw Center for the Arts, where the chamber also unveiled results from an online poll of nearly 500 regional business leaders.

In that poll, 55 percent of the business leaders responding expect moderate growth in the Baton Rouge economy in 2010. When looking at the next three years, 76 percent said they expect moderate growth.

“This is the clearest indicator, we think, of the optimism of the greater Baton Rouge metro region,” Knapp said.

Health care, which represents one in 10 jobs in the region, could generate one in three of the region’s new jobs in 2010, BRAC projections showed. That would generate about 1,000 new jobs.

Business and professional services, the source of one in eight Baton Rouge jobs, is something of a wild card. The chamber expects growth for the sector, but that growth could range from 500 new jobs to 1,500 — depending on how robust the economic recovery is in 2010.

The next strongest job sectors in 2010, the chamber said, are likely to be hospitality and entertainment, with growth of 350 to 650 jobs; and industrial construction, with growth of 300 to 500 jobs.

Strong drivers of job growth will be health care and refinery and chemical manufacturing expansions, though Knapp said the chamber expects significant growth from an emerging sector, digital media.

However, a state government that’s looking at streamlining and belt-tightening could affect growth negatively in metro Baton Rouge, he said.

“State government is a big unknown to us right now, but all indicators point to a decreasing (revenue picture),” said Knapp, who cited projected drops in federal matches for health-care programs, leaving state government to shoulder a greater burden.