• Advocate business staff
• Published: Nov 3, 2009 - UPDATED: 12:45 p.m.

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The greater Baton Rouge area should see growth in jobs and population through 2012, though with uncertainty in some sectors, such as state government revenue, according to a Baton Rouge Area Chamber forecast released today.

For 2010, BRAC forecasts the region gaining 3,000 to 6,500 net jobs on a base of about 375,000 current employment. That’s a 1 percent to 2 percent gain. The region had averaged about 2.2 percent annual job growth the past five years, but that slowed to slightly more than one-half of 1 percent in 2008, as the recession set in.

Most new jobs will come from health care, refining and chemical manufacturing expansions, digital media growth and a generally improving economy that grew 3.5 percent in the nation during the July-September quarter.

“State government is a big unknown to us right now, but all indicators point to a decreasing (revenue picture),” said Adam Knapp, the chamber’s chief executive officer, who cited expected drops in federal matches for health-care programs.

Knapp also said the Capital Region’s population should grow by about 5,200 people a year through 2012. In an online survey about the region’s economy, about 500 business leaders responded, with 55 percent expecting moderate growth in the region’s economy and 30 percent expecting no change. About 76 percent expect moderate growth in the regional economy from 2010 to 2012.

“This is the clearest indicator, we think, of the optimism of the greater Baton Rouge metro region,” Knapp said. About 54 percent of business owners expect their own businesses to grow at 5 percent or more, he said.