Analyst predicts GOP wins to aid two La. Democrats

• By GERARD SHIELDS
• Advocate Washington bureau
• Published: Dec 9, 2008 - Page: 7A - UPDATED: 12:05 a.m.

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WASHINGTON — In what may seem a counterintuitive analysis, political consultant Elliot Stonecipher says the election of two Louisiana Republicans on Saturday should mean a political boost to Democrats Charles “Charlie” Melancon and Mary Landrieu.

Stonecipher said the two GOP pickups will give Republicans a 7-to-2 edge in Louisiana’s congressional delegation, but that edge should make Melancon and Landrieu that much more important as Democratic liaisons from to the administration of President-elect Barack Obama.

Because the House is controlled by Democrats, Melancon, the lone House Democrat in the delegation, also is expected to be Louisiana’s conduit to House leadership.

“He is the man,” said Stonecipher, a pollster from Shreveport.

Landrieu will now be the dean of the delegation with a mere 12 years of experience in the Senate.

U.S. Rep. William Jefferson, D-New Orleans, on Saturday lost his bid to a 10th two-year term after being stunned by Republican political newcomer Anh “Joseph” Cao. The unofficial results in the four-person race was 33,122 votes, or 49.55 percent, for Cao, and 31,296 votes, or 46.8 percent, for Jefferson, according to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s Web site.

Republicans appeared to also maintain the seat of retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Jim McCrery, of Shreveport. The unofficial results in that four-person race: 44,497 votes, or 48.07 percent, for Republican John Fleming and 44,141, or 47.69 percent for Democrat Paul J. Carmouche.

The end of Jefferson’s 18 years in Congress is added to a combined 41 years of clout already lost by the state this year. McCrery had 20 years of service and former U.S. Rep. Richard Baker, R-Baton Rouge, took 21 years of experience with him with his February exit.

The state’s third Democrat, U.S. Rep. Don Cazayoux, of New Roads, lost to Dr. William Cassidy, a Republican, last month.

In addition to their congressional duties, Landrieu and Melancon will have to play a role in shoring up Louisiana’s Democratic Party, Stonecipher said.

Republicans have won the state’s other key races with Gov. Bobby Jindal’s victory last year and the 2004 win of U.S. Sen. David Vitter.

“It’s clear that the Democrats need to rebuild with Mary Landrieu and Charlie Melancon at the core,” Stonecipher said.

That Republicans took over the two House seats should not be a surprise in a state that voted 59 percent with Republican presidential contender John McCain, Stonecipher said. But the view from across the nation is that Louisiana is bucking the trend that has given Democrats a significant leg up in the House, with a lead of 256-177.