Jefferson re-election predicted in N.O.

• By ALLEN M. JOHNSON JR.
• Advocate New Orleans bureau
• Published: Oct 31, 2008 - Page: 10A - UPDATED: 12:05 a.m.

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NEW ORLEANS — Indicted U.S. Rep. William Jennings Jefferson of the 2nd Congressional District appears headed for victory over a political newcomer in the Democrat runoff election Tuesday, analysts say.

“Race is the big factor,” political analyst Allan Katz said.

Jefferson, now 61 and the first black congressman from Louisiana since reconstruction, should easily defeat former television anchor Helena Moreno, a Mexican-born American, despite sweeping corruption charges against the incumbent and his family, pundits predict.

“I am projecting (Jefferson) will win the runoff by 58 percent of the vote, based on his support and (voter) turnout for the primary,” Ed Chevernak, a political scientist at the University of New Orleans, said. “I haven’t even factored in increased African-American support because of the Obama factor.”

Fueled by the historic presidential election, black voter registration and participation is climbing in majority-black District 2, which includes most of Orleans Parish and parts of the West Bank and south Kenner in neighboring Jefferson Parish.

Black people represent 62 percent of the more than 372,000 voters in the district. But the runoff is open only to Democrats (75 percent are black) and independent voters (13 percent are black). Of the more than 10,000 absentee ballots cast for the presidential election, black voters outnumbered white voters by 4 to 1 in vote-rich Orleans Parish.

The district was constructed as a majority-black voter district by the Louisiana Legislature after 1980 to ensure opportunities for minority representation, Chevernak said. Jefferson is the only black member of Louisiana’s seven-member congressional delegation.

“It was designed to be a district for an African-American Democrat, and it is going to stay that way,” Katz said.

Since sweeping aside five younger black male opponents in the Gustav-delayed party primary, Jefferson has been waging a low-key runoff campaign, ignoring Moreno’s call for debates and dismissing media questions about his 16-count federal indictment and trial, still pending in Virginia. Jefferson maintains his innocence.

“He’s in a runoff with the only person he could beat,” said Jeff Crouere, a political analyst, who predicts Jefferson will win by 60 to 40 percent of the vote — with Moreno taking virtually all of the white vote.

Unlike the news media, Moreno has avoided hammering the courtly incumbent with questions about mounting evidence of corruption against him.  

Jefferson joined Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Cazayoux and Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise as the only “No” votes in the Louisiana congressional delegation against the Wall Street “bailout” — but most of the local news has focused on his legal troubles.

During the recent trial of a twice-convicted felon linked to disgraced former state Sen. Derrick Shepherd, an FBI agent testified that an illegal payment of $20,000 made its way to Jefferson — a separate allegation from the $90,000 in marked money agents allegedly found his freezer during a raid on his Virginia home in 2005.