Analysts say 6th District race likely to be close

• By SARAH CHACKO
• Advocate Capitol News Bureau
• Published: Oct 11, 2008 - Page: 1A - UPDATED: 12:05 a.m.

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All three candidates in the closely contested 6th U.S. Congressional District race say they have a solid base of support among the more than 400,000 registered voters.

But the three-way race will also be determined by which candidate best attracts undecided voters, and picks off some of his rival’s assumed base, in the next 24 days.

After all, the victor only has to get the most votes, not a majority, to land a two-year term in Washington D.C.

On the ballot for the Nov. 4 election are incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-New Roads; state Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge; and state Rep. Michael Jackson, No Party-Baton Rouge.

Greg Rigamer, a political analyst, said the 6th District looks to be about 31 percent black voters, 28 percent Republican and 50 percent Democrat. Final voter registration numbers have not been released.

“The base of support they have each is a little different, but in order to win, they’ll have to draw from the other two pools,” said Robert Hogan, an associate professor of political science at LSU.

Jackson, who is black, said he is confident he will do well among black voters and core Democrats.

Jackson ran against Cazayoux for the seat in the spring. He received the majority of the black vote in the runoff, though the race drew a small percentage of voters overall.

With the presidential elections expected to draw more voters to the polls, the scenario is much better for his candidacy, Jackson said.

“We’ll pull the same numbers we pulled the first time around,” Jackson said.

Rigamer said one of the questions in the 6th District race is if black voters who typically support the Democratic Party will stay with their party candidate or get behind the black candidate.

“Where do you move — party or race?” Rigamer asked.

In either case, Cazayoux will not be able to count on the support of the black community to the degree Democrats customarily have received, Rigamer said.