Louisiana watching Ike
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With Tropical Storm Hanna hitting the East Coast Saturday and tropical depression Josephine falling apart far out in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Ike was on the minds of Louisiana residents still recovering from Hurricane Gustav.
By Saturday afternoon, Hurricane Ike had reached Category 3 strength, according to the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
As of 4 p.m. Saturday, the storm was located at 21.4 degrees north and 69.7 degrees west and moving west-southwest at about 15 miles per hour.
The center forecasts that Hurricane Ike will move over or near Cuba tonight or early Monday, which could weaken the storm. How weak depends on how much of it moves over the island and how long it stays there, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Sometime Tuesday, Hurricane Ike is expected to leave the island and enter the southeastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico where the storm will likely strengthen again.
“It doesn’t look great,” said Louisiana State Climatologist Barry Keim.
Currently, the north central Gulf Coast, including Louisiana, is in the uncertainty range for possible landfall, he said.
“A Louisiana landfall is more likely today than it was yesterday,” Keim said.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in five-day forecasts, he said.
“With the five-day cone (of possible impact) it really could be anyone’s storm,” Keim said.
That’s a change from two days ago, when a landfall in Florida looked more likely, he said.
There are several forces that will influence where Hurricane Ike will go, Keim said.
One factor is a high pressure ridge that has formed between Tropical Storm Hanna to the north and Hurricane Ike. That ridge is encouraging Ike to travel west, Keim said.
But the farther away from that ridge of pressure the storm travels, he said, the more likely Ike will start taking a turn to the northwest.
In addition, there is a “short wave trough,” basically a dip in the jet stream, that also could have an impact, Keim said.
In the midatmosphere, this trough will have winds flowing from the southwest to the northeast, which could help pull Hurricane Ike more to the west-northwest and northwestward, he said.
How much influence that trough will have is uncertain, Keim said, and computer models from the National Hurricane Center disagree on whether that trough will be too far north to have an impact.
“This is what makes long-range forecasting so difficult,” he said.
In preparation for the latest storm, Louisiana activated a task force to monitor Hurricane Ike, Gov. Bobby Jindal said Saturday morning.
If the current track holds, Jindal said the state could feel tropical storm winds by Friday and he encouraged residents to watch the storm but not to panic.
By Monday or Tuesday, forecasters should have a better idea of where the storm is going, Jindal said.
“Certainly our state is ready. We’re not hoping for another strike. We’re ready,” the governor said.
East Baton Rouge Parish officials are also preparing for Hurricane Ike.
In addition to trying to remove debris, city-parish officials are asking the faith-based community to reserve its resources for parish residents, said Walter Monsour, chief administrative officer for Mayor-President Kip Holden.
“This is not meant to be stingy,” Monsour said. “But our mission is to keep Baton Rouge as clear as possible (of evacuees) since we were hit so hard by Gustav.”
During a telephone conference Saturday afternoon, FEMA representatives said they’re also watching Hurricane Ike closely.
“We have all our resources prepositioned for Ike as a major, serious hurricane,” said Glenn Cannon, assistant administrator with disaster operations with the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
As the storm track projections shift in the next few days, supplies and personnel will be shifted as well, Cannon said.
“We’re trying to rest our people as much as possible today and tomorrow because we know next week will be very, very busy for our folks,” Cannon said.
Advocate staff writers Michelle Millhollon and Kimberly Vetter
contributed to this report.
By Saturday afternoon, Hurricane Ike had reached Category 3 strength, according to the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
As of 4 p.m. Saturday, the storm was located at 21.4 degrees north and 69.7 degrees west and moving west-southwest at about 15 miles per hour.
The center forecasts that Hurricane Ike will move over or near Cuba tonight or early Monday, which could weaken the storm. How weak depends on how much of it moves over the island and how long it stays there, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Sometime Tuesday, Hurricane Ike is expected to leave the island and enter the southeastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico where the storm will likely strengthen again.
“It doesn’t look great,” said Louisiana State Climatologist Barry Keim.
Currently, the north central Gulf Coast, including Louisiana, is in the uncertainty range for possible landfall, he said.
“A Louisiana landfall is more likely today than it was yesterday,” Keim said.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in five-day forecasts, he said.
“With the five-day cone (of possible impact) it really could be anyone’s storm,” Keim said.
That’s a change from two days ago, when a landfall in Florida looked more likely, he said.
There are several forces that will influence where Hurricane Ike will go, Keim said.
One factor is a high pressure ridge that has formed between Tropical Storm Hanna to the north and Hurricane Ike. That ridge is encouraging Ike to travel west, Keim said.
But the farther away from that ridge of pressure the storm travels, he said, the more likely Ike will start taking a turn to the northwest.
In addition, there is a “short wave trough,” basically a dip in the jet stream, that also could have an impact, Keim said.
In the midatmosphere, this trough will have winds flowing from the southwest to the northeast, which could help pull Hurricane Ike more to the west-northwest and northwestward, he said.
How much influence that trough will have is uncertain, Keim said, and computer models from the National Hurricane Center disagree on whether that trough will be too far north to have an impact.
“This is what makes long-range forecasting so difficult,” he said.
In preparation for the latest storm, Louisiana activated a task force to monitor Hurricane Ike, Gov. Bobby Jindal said Saturday morning.
If the current track holds, Jindal said the state could feel tropical storm winds by Friday and he encouraged residents to watch the storm but not to panic.
By Monday or Tuesday, forecasters should have a better idea of where the storm is going, Jindal said.
“Certainly our state is ready. We’re not hoping for another strike. We’re ready,” the governor said.
East Baton Rouge Parish officials are also preparing for Hurricane Ike.
In addition to trying to remove debris, city-parish officials are asking the faith-based community to reserve its resources for parish residents, said Walter Monsour, chief administrative officer for Mayor-President Kip Holden.
“This is not meant to be stingy,” Monsour said. “But our mission is to keep Baton Rouge as clear as possible (of evacuees) since we were hit so hard by Gustav.”
During a telephone conference Saturday afternoon, FEMA representatives said they’re also watching Hurricane Ike closely.
“We have all our resources prepositioned for Ike as a major, serious hurricane,” said Glenn Cannon, assistant administrator with disaster operations with the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
As the storm track projections shift in the next few days, supplies and personnel will be shifted as well, Cannon said.
“We’re trying to rest our people as much as possible today and tomorrow because we know next week will be very, very busy for our folks,” Cannon said.
Advocate staff writers Michelle Millhollon and Kimberly Vetter
contributed to this report.
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