La. on alert for Gustav

• By AMY WOLD
• Advocate staff writer
• Published: Aug 27, 2008 - Page: 1A - UPDATED: 12:05 a.m.

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A developing high-pressure system over Florida and the Bahamas holds the key to whether Louisiana residents will be bracing for a hurricane early next week, the state climatologist said Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said late Tuesday that Gustav had weakened to a tropical storm with winds near 70 mph. It  is expected to regain hurricane strength today once it clears Haiti.

Forecasters said it could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds topping 96 mph Thursday as it moves between Cuba and Jamaica.

On Tuesday morning, hurricane forecast tracks showed that Tropical Storm Gustav could become a threat to Louisiana by Monday or Tuesday.

“The path is ominous for the state of Louisiana right now,” said Barry Keim, Louisiana state climatologist.

During a news conference in Baton Rouge on Tuesday afternoon, Gov. Bobby Jindal shared that concern and urged Louisiana residents to start preparing for the worst.

Jindal emphasized that although there is still a lot of uncertainty in the track Gustav could take, it’s not too early for families to make sure they’re prepared.

“Don’t wait for this weekend,” Jindal said. “Now is the time.”

The determining factor in Gustav’s track is high pressure forming over the Bahamas and Florida, Keim said.

This high-pressure area is acting as a steering current for the storm, he said.

If that high pressure system stays and develops where it is, that “steering” system could push the storm farther west and into the Yucatan Peninsula, he said.

However, if that high pressure starts moving eastward — as the National Hurricane Center forecasts — the system will be pushed toward a track that could threaten Louisiana.

“That’s the worst-case scenario for us,” Keim said. “That’s really the wild card in this thing.”