Jindal wins Louisiana governor's race
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Low black turnout may be factor
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Republican U. S. Rep. Bobby Jindal won the race for governor without a runoff largely because of low turnout by black voters, political analysts said Saturday night.
Democrats Foster Campbell, of Bossier Parish, and Walter Boasso, of Arabi, and independent John Georges, of New Orleans, all hoped to force a runoff with Jindal with support from black voters, who generally get behind Democratic contenders.
But Elliott Stonecipher, a Shreveport demographer and political analyst, said there were signs that white turnout was running well ahead of votes cast by blacks.
“African American turnout is going to be a good 10 points less than white turnout,” Stonecipher said shortly after Jindal claimed victory.
“It is playing out the way we have been saying for a week,” he said.
Stonecipher said that Jindal, who is from Kenner, may have come away with black support in the low single digits, well below what some polls had shown him getting before election day.
But he said there were also signals that the Republican was winning the support of perhaps two-thirds of white voters, which analysts said before Saturday’s vote was part of his recipe for an outright win on primary day.
“We may find out that he is past 69 percent,” Stonecipher said of Jindal’s support from white voters.
The results with 3,813 of 3,967 precincts reporting were:
Jindal, 655,545, or 53 percent.
Boasso, 217,604, 18 percent
Georges, 177,919, 14 percent.
Campbell, 156,727, 13 percent.
The rest of the vote was scattered among lesser-known contenders.
Al Ater, former secretary of state, said he was struck by generally low numbers of those who went to the polls. Predictions beforehand were no more than 50 percent of registered voters would cast ballots, and maybe much less.
Less than normal black turnout, Ater noted, would hurt bids by Campbell, Boasso and Georges.
“Then the vote that Jindal receives becomes disproportionate,” Ater said.
Election day featured two key questions that were intertwined:
Would Jindal win the race for governor without a runoff?
Would black voters, who make up a huge part of the Democratic base, go to the polls, which experts said boosted chances for a runoff?
Various polls in the days before the primary showed Jindal at or near the 50 percent plus one that he needed to win the contest outright.
However, large numbers of black voters were said to be undecided, which set off a last-minute scramble for support from Campbell, Boasso and Georges.
Campbell, a member of the Public Service Commission, billed himself as the one true Democrat in the race and chided Boasso and Georges for their party switches earlier this year. He also won endorsements from Sen. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge, and a lawmaker known for his get-out-the-vote efforts.
Boasso, a state senator, touted his rags-to-riches personal history and the endorsement of Shreveport Mayor Cedric Glover, who is black.
Georges, a businessman, appealed to black voters in part by campaigning with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
Black voters make up about 30 percent of Louisiana’s registered voters. The closer election-day turnout mirrors that, political analysts said, the more likely that the block-Jindal movement would succeed.
Turnout of 22 percent or 23 percent, they said, would boost chances that Jindal could win outright Saturday by rolling up big support among white voters, which he did in the 2003 primary.
The vote Saturday marked the first chance to gauge the impact of population losses in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, many of whom were Democratic loyalists.
“It is clear that the demographics have changed and the heavy turnout that Democrats could rely on from the African American community has been diminished,” said Robert Hogan, associate professor of political science at LSU.
Democrats Foster Campbell, of Bossier Parish, and Walter Boasso, of Arabi, and independent John Georges, of New Orleans, all hoped to force a runoff with Jindal with support from black voters, who generally get behind Democratic contenders.
But Elliott Stonecipher, a Shreveport demographer and political analyst, said there were signs that white turnout was running well ahead of votes cast by blacks.
“African American turnout is going to be a good 10 points less than white turnout,” Stonecipher said shortly after Jindal claimed victory.
“It is playing out the way we have been saying for a week,” he said.
Stonecipher said that Jindal, who is from Kenner, may have come away with black support in the low single digits, well below what some polls had shown him getting before election day.
But he said there were also signals that the Republican was winning the support of perhaps two-thirds of white voters, which analysts said before Saturday’s vote was part of his recipe for an outright win on primary day.
“We may find out that he is past 69 percent,” Stonecipher said of Jindal’s support from white voters.
The results with 3,813 of 3,967 precincts reporting were:
Jindal, 655,545, or 53 percent.
Boasso, 217,604, 18 percent
Georges, 177,919, 14 percent.
Campbell, 156,727, 13 percent.
The rest of the vote was scattered among lesser-known contenders.
Al Ater, former secretary of state, said he was struck by generally low numbers of those who went to the polls. Predictions beforehand were no more than 50 percent of registered voters would cast ballots, and maybe much less.
Less than normal black turnout, Ater noted, would hurt bids by Campbell, Boasso and Georges.
“Then the vote that Jindal receives becomes disproportionate,” Ater said.
Election day featured two key questions that were intertwined:
Would Jindal win the race for governor without a runoff?
Would black voters, who make up a huge part of the Democratic base, go to the polls, which experts said boosted chances for a runoff?
Various polls in the days before the primary showed Jindal at or near the 50 percent plus one that he needed to win the contest outright.
However, large numbers of black voters were said to be undecided, which set off a last-minute scramble for support from Campbell, Boasso and Georges.
Campbell, a member of the Public Service Commission, billed himself as the one true Democrat in the race and chided Boasso and Georges for their party switches earlier this year. He also won endorsements from Sen. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge, and a lawmaker known for his get-out-the-vote efforts.
Boasso, a state senator, touted his rags-to-riches personal history and the endorsement of Shreveport Mayor Cedric Glover, who is black.
Georges, a businessman, appealed to black voters in part by campaigning with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
Black voters make up about 30 percent of Louisiana’s registered voters. The closer election-day turnout mirrors that, political analysts said, the more likely that the block-Jindal movement would succeed.
Turnout of 22 percent or 23 percent, they said, would boost chances that Jindal could win outright Saturday by rolling up big support among white voters, which he did in the 2003 primary.
The vote Saturday marked the first chance to gauge the impact of population losses in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, many of whom were Democratic loyalists.
“It is clear that the demographics have changed and the heavy turnout that Democrats could rely on from the African American community has been diminished,” said Robert Hogan, associate professor of political science at LSU.
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