Election hinges on black turnout

• By WILL SENTELL
• Advocate Capitol News Bureau
• Published: Oct 12, 2007 - Page: 1A

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Republican Bobby Jindal’s  chance for winning the race for governor without a runoff hinges on how many black voters show up on Oct. 20 to cast ballots for his opponents,  three political analysts said Thursday.

Put simply, the stop-Jindal movement is banking on heavy turnout by black voters, who generally side with Democratic contenders by lopsided margins, they said.

“I think that the black voters will be the first critical voters in this election,” said Kurt Corbello, associate professor political science at Southeastern Louisiana University in Hammond.

“Whether they turn out in good numbers or not is going to help determine whether there is a runoff and who winds up running second,” he said.

Other political experts made the same point.

“Clearly, the deciding factor is the black vote,” said William Arp, a professor of political science at Southern University.

Jindal, a congressman from Kenner, is one of the four best-financed contenders in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco, who is not seeking a second term.

The others are Democrats Foster Campbell of Bossier Parish, a member of the Public Service Commission; Walter Boasso, a state senator from Arabi; and John Georges, a New Orleans area businessman.

A wide range of polls, including one released Wednesday by Southeastern Louisiana University, show Jindal flirting with an outright win on Oct. 20, which would nullify the need for a runoff on Nov. 17. That takes 50 percent plus one in the primary.

But Campbell, Georges and Boasso are all scrambling for support from black leaders, one of several signs that black voters are seen as a key group in extending the contest for governor.

Black voters make up just under 30 percent of registered voters in Louisiana.

If turnout on election day is close to that, officials said, it boosts chances that Jindal will finish with less than the magic figure to avoid a runoff.

“If black voters stay home in large numbers, if their percentage of the electorate falls into the 22 or 23 percent range, Bobby Jindal is a first-round winner,” said Pearson Cross, assistant professor of political science at the University of Louisiana in Lafayette.